Shadow War in the Persian Gulf; Diplomacy and Military Power Simultaneously on the Field

Analysis | Kabul Times News

Recent developments in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman have once again shown that this region remains one of the most sensitive centers of geopolitical competition in the world. The confrontation between Iran and the United States is no longer just a bilateral dispute, but part of a broader competition over regional influence, energy security, and shaping the future order of the Middle East.

The rise in tensions after a series of military and security confrontations has raised concerns about the possibility of a wider crisis. Attacks on shipping lanes and reciprocal reactions have once again demonstrated the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz; a passage through which a significant portion of the world’s energy passes, and any instability there could have economic and security consequences beyond the region.

Despite the escalation of tensions, there are also signs of efforts to prevent a full-scale conflict. Tehran and Washington are well aware that a direct war will entail heavy political, economic, and security costs for both sides and even the global economy. Therefore, in addition to demonstrating military power and applying political and economic pressure, diplomatic channels have also been kept open.

Inside Iran, these developments have also highlighted two different approaches to foreign policy. One group seeks to reduce international pressure through dialogue and interaction with the West, while another group emphasizes strengthening deterrence, developing defense capabilities, and continuing the policy of resistance. This difference in perspective raises a fundamental question: is national security ensured through agreements with global powers or through reliance on domestic power and independent deterrence?

On the other hand, the United States is also pursuing a dual strategy. On the one hand, Washington is seeking to change Iran’s behavior through sanctions, political pressure, and limited military actions, and on the other hand, it is trying to prevent the crisis from turning into a full-scale war; Because instability in the Persian Gulf could affect the energy security and economic and strategic interests of the United States and its allies.

This confrontation is not just a military confrontation, but a competition for influence, the balance of power, and the future of the regional order. The Strait of Hormuz, energy resources, political influence, and great power competition continue to make the Persian Gulf one of the most important geopolitical points in the world.

From a regional perspective, the experience of the past decades has shown that relying solely on foreign powers or temporary agreements does not create sustainable security. Many analysts believe that strengthening national institutions, internal cohesion, regional cooperation, and maintaining common interests can play an important role in reducing crises and increasing stability.

Finally, the crisis between Iran and the United States reminds us of an important reality; In the international system, powers act based on their own interests, and countries need efficient, legitimate, and capable domestic structures above all else to maintain security, stability, and independence. The future of the Persian Gulf will also depend to a large extent on the ability of regional actors to manage disputes and prevent rivalries from turning into widespread conflicts.