Afghanistan in the New Regional Order; From the Margin of the West's Strategy to the Axis of Regional Power Competition

Analysis | Syed Baqir Shah Ahmadi

The developments of recent years show that Afghanistan has gradually moved away from its previous position in the security priorities of the West, especially the United States. If in the past two decades, Afghanistan was one of the main axes of the US and NATO military presence, today the war in Ukraine, the crises in the Middle East, and Washington's increasing competition with China and Russia have shifted the West's attention to other issues.

However, the decrease in the West's direct attention to Afghanistan does not mean a decrease in the geopolitical importance of this country. On the contrary, the vacuum caused by this change in approach has caused Afghanistan to be placed more than before at the center of the security and strategic calculations of regional powers and become a point of convergence of the interests of Russia, China, Iran, India, and Pakistan.

Redefining Regional Competitions Around Afghanistan

Today, regional powers consider Afghanistan part of their national security equations and geopolitical interests.

Russia sees Afghanistan as a key link in ensuring the security of Central Asia. China has linked the stability of Afghanistan to the security of the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran sees the country as part of its strategic depth in the East. India sees Afghanistan as a counterweight to Pakistan’s influence, while Pakistan continues to seek to maintain its traditional influence in the country.

As a result, Afghanistan has once again become a scene of power competition; this time not in the form of military occupation, but through security cooperation, economic competition, proxy wars, and the struggle for regional corridors.

## Taliban-Russia rapprochement; the beginning of a new chapter

The closer relations between the Taliban and Russia, especially in the political, security, and economic spheres, indicate a change in Moscow’s view of the current rulers of Afghanistan. Russia now sees the Taliban not simply as an insurgent group, but as part of the security realities of the region.

Meanwhile, some speculation has been raised about the possibility of Russia using forces close to the Taliban in some regional conflicts. Although such claims have not been officially confirmed yet, the discussion shows that Afghanistan has entered a new phase of geopolitical interactions in the region.

Possibility of further convergence between Tehran and the Taliban

If tensions between Iran, the US and Israel escalate, the possibility of further convergence between Tehran and the Taliban can also be considered. Iran has concluded that the instability of Afghanistan could bring threats such as the expansion of ISIS Khorasan activity and increased insecurity on the country’s eastern borders.

Accordingly, Tehran may engage in more pragmatic cooperation with the Taliban within the framework of regional security arrangements. However, the issue of the participation of forces affiliated with the Taliban in any possible regional conflict remains speculative and there is no official indication in this regard.

Pakistan and the complex equation of Afghanistan

Pakistan is still considered one of the most important and at the same time the most complex players in the Afghan case. On the one hand, Islamabad is facing security challenges and border disputes with the Taliban, and on the other hand, it is trying to maintain its traditional influence in the developments in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s recent diplomatic moves and the country’s increasing contacts with Western partners, from the perspective of some observers, could be a sign of Islamabad’s concern about changing regional balances and the Taliban’s rapprochement with Russia, Iran, and China.

Some analysts also believe that security competitions in the region could pave the way for different perceptions about the roles of different actors in managing or containing threats such as ISIS-K.

Kabul-Islamabad rivalry: beyond border disputes

The rivalry between Afghanistan and Pakistan is no longer limited to border disputes, but has become part of the geopolitical rivalry in the region.

Afghanistan is trying to reduce its economic dependence on Pakistan and connect to new markets through routes such as Chabahar Port, Central Asia, and regional projects. On the other hand, the Taliban's rapprochement with Russia, Iran, and China could affect the regional balance of power and Pakistan's traditional position.

Conclusion

The world is moving toward a multipolar order, and Afghanistan is also in the context of this transformation. The decline in the West's direct role in Afghanistan does not mean that the country's importance is decreasing; rather, Afghanistan has now become more than ever one of the axes of competition between regional powers.

The Taliban's rapprochement with Russia, the possibility of expanding cooperation with Iran, continued competition with Pakistan, and the increasing importance of economic corridors are all signs that Afghanistan is entering a new phase of regional role-building.

However, the future of Afghanistan will largely depend on the country's ability to define an independent strategy based on national interests, maintain a balance in foreign relations, and prevent it from becoming a