The International Crisis Group said in its report that Pakistan’s open war with the Taliban has led to voices within the Taliban leadership calling for more support for Pakistani militants, believing that they could weaken the Pakistani army on its own soil.

The international organization’s press release warned that if the Taliban increased their support for the TTP and other militants, Pakistan would likely step up its military attacks. The escalation of the war could be catastrophic for civilians; more than 100,000 people have already been displaced by the new round of fighting.

The report added that Pakistan has a clear military advantage over the Taliban in Afghanistan, but the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown that this advantage can be challenged by asymmetric methods.

The International Crisis Group added that the Taliban’s ability to use drones over cities such as Islamabad and Rawalpindi is an example of this approach. The Taliban have tried to challenge Pakistan’s air superiority with drone strikes and are likely to expand this capability further, the group said.

The group stressed that there are no winners in the current war.

“The war may have strengthened domestic support for the Taliban, but it has further isolated Afghanistan internationally,” the report said.

The Crisis Group also wrote that while some countries have expressed sympathy for the Afghan people after the March 16 attack, few governments have condemned Pakistan’s military actions. In contrast, pressure has increased on Kabul to rein in armed groups based on Afghan soil.

The group said the situation has also weakened regional consensus to engage with the Taliban to stabilize Afghanistan.

The report also said that disruptions in trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan since October have challenged the Taliban’s policy of turning Afghanistan into a gateway between Central and South Asia.

According to the report, Pakistan’s call for the Taliban to immediately and completely suppress the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is unrealistic, given that the group has a complex structure and deep historical ties with the Taliban, which could backfire if it is put under too much pressure.

Finally, the International Crisis Group warned that the recent escalation of fighting would not only not improve the security situation, but would also increase destruction, displacement and economic crisis. It stressed that without a return to dialogue, the risk of deadly violence would remain.